- Gold futures consolidate gains, awaiting key US data releases today.
- Dovish Fed and geopolitical risks continue to keep the bullion underpinned.
- Central bank buying could keep the asset bullish in 2026 and 2027 as well.
Gold futures remained firm on Wednesday, consolidating gains as traders await key US releases ahead that could shape the FOMC meeting next week. Gold Feb futures were trading near $4,230, up 0.25%, at the time of writing. The broad futures markets continue to price in a dovish shift from the Fed, while safe-haven demand for gold also remains resilient.
The gold’s medium-term narrative gains strength after Deutsche Bank upgrades its 2026 forecast to $4,450, up from its previous estimate of $4,000. The bank also projects the 2026 price range to be near $3,950 to $4,950. Meanwhile, the forecast for 2027 rises to $5,150, reinforcing a multi-year bullish cycle for gold.
According to the report, the gold’s structural strength counts on heavy institutional buying, stable investor flows into gold-linked financial products, and tight supply conditions. Central bank buying remains the key demand driver, with official purchases in Q3 2025 reaching the third-largest quarter in dollar terms. The bank anticipates 1,053 tons of central bank buying in 2026, compared with 853 tons in 2025. This also shows a diversion away from the jewelry and industrial markets.
Meanwhile, the supply side for gold also provides adequate support, as global mine output saw a marginal rise only. According to estimates, production is expected to rise to 3,715 tons in 2026, while the recycled gold supply is anticipated to be around 1,470 tons, still well below historic highs despite higher prices. This imbalance between solid demand and inelastic supply continues to support the long-term bullish trajectory reflected in futures pricing.
Fed monetary policy expectations contribute to short-term volatility in the gold futures market. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the markets are pricing in a nearly 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut next week. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, helping the asset to maintain bullish momentum. However, traders remain focused on Wednesday’s US ADP Employment Report, the ISM Services PMI, and Friday’s PCE inflation data to find confirmation of continued economic cooling.
Geopolitical risk also acts as a key supportive factor for gold. Ongoing tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with potential escalation warnings from Moscow, continue to underpin demand for gold as a haven. These tailwinds have helped offset the pressure from rising equities.
Geopolitical risk remains another supportive factor. Ongoing tensions surrounding the Russia–Ukraine conflict, alongside warnings from Moscow of potential escalation, continue to underpin safe-haven demand within futures markets. These tailwinds have helped offset the pressure from improving equity sentiment and intraday consolidation.
