Introduction
Gold futures (GC) are gaining bullish momentum again, climbing and pushing back above $4,190 and making space between itself and the 50-day moving average. Now the all-time high of $4,398 is back in sight, and GC only needs to rally 4.6% to hit it.
Let’s take a closer look at the technicals and what they are telling us.
Technical Overview
Technical Analysis
The 50-day moving average is playing a key role as prices have not fallen below it. This was a strong and necessary aspect for the longer-term price action. The candlesticks also began to reduce in size, meaning there is low volatility, and a breakout in either direction is then possible.
With the RSI bouncing off the 50 level and curving upward, it is another addition to the bullish momentum that is forming.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance
| Level | Description |
|---|---|
| $4,220–$4,250 | Near-term resistance cluster. |
| $4,300 | Minor swing high. |
| $4,350–$4,400 | Trend extension zone. |
Support
| Level | Description |
|---|---|
| $4,020–$3,980 | 50-day MA and recent support area |
| $3,950 | Prior consolidation |
| $3,465 | 200-day MA |
Gold Probability Table (Next 2–3 Weeks)
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Continuation toward $4,250–$4,300 | 55% | Strong bounce from 50-day MA + improving RSI. |
| Sideways consolidation between $4,020–$4,200 | 30% | |
| Breakdown below $3,980 → retrace to $3,950 | 15% | Only if dollar strengthens. |
Fundamentals
Recent price action in gold reflects that U.S. yields have pulled back, which helps support non-yielding assets like gold, while a softer U.S. dollar has eased some of the downward pressure on prices. At the same time, market uncertainty remains high, with ongoing geopolitical tensions and mixed economic data keeping safe-haven demand steady.
Expectations around the Federal Reserve remain dovish-leaning, and if rate cut discussions return, that could boost gold’s medium-term outlook. Overall, the combination of macro support and improving technicals continues to make gold attractive on pullbacks.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.