Introduction
Crude oil futures (CL) have now moved into the $60–62 support zone that has acted as a floor since early August. It is an important zone because the next level below this is at $54. Bulls will be looking to hold this level so that price doesn’t slip to those levels not seen since the beginning of May.
Technically, crude remains below both its 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average, and the 50 has been below the 200 for over a year now. The RSI has fallen to 41.32, leaning closer to oversold territory and becoming more and more bearish.
Bulls need a decisive move above $64 to regain momentum, but ultimately, the market has been consolidating so a move in either direction could be a powerful one.
Quick Look At Fundamentals
- OPEC+ Supply Discipline: The market is waiting on whether OPEC+ will extend or deepen cuts to stabilize prices. So far, no major new commitments have been announced.
- U.S. Inventory Data: EIA reports show uneven draws.
- Macro Outlook: There are global growth concerns from slowing industrial activity in China and Europe.
Key Levels to Watch
- Major support: $60–62 zone (current price level).
- Immediate resistance: $64.18 (50-day MA).
- Stronger resistance: $66.76 (200-day MA).
- Breakdown target: $55–56 zone.
Probability Table
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Support at $60–62 holds, range persists | 45% | Buyers are defending this level. |
| Breakdown below $60 toward $55–56 | 35% | Weak RSI, bearish structure increases risk. |
| Rebound above $64 and retest $66–67 | 20% | Needs fundamental support. |
Ending Off
Crude oil sits at an important support level, with the $60–62 zone once again being the battleground between bulls and bears. Fundamentals lean bearish while technicals highlight weakening momentum. A confirmed break below $60 could shift market sentiment sharply lower.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does **not** constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
