Introduction
Following on from our previous analysis, Gold futures have broken above the all-time high once more. Price action remains firmly above both the 50-day moving average at $3,527 and the 200-day moving average at $3,184.9 as bulls continue to dominate the market.
The RSI now sits above 75, entering overbought conditions. This is normal in a steady bull market and is not as impactful as when the market is trending strongly or having impulse moves. In this case, bears still have little footing.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate resistance: $3,875, $3,900, and the psychological $4,000 mark.
- Near-term support: $3,720–$3,700, followed by the 50-day MA at $3,527.
- Deeper support: $3,430 if selling pressure intensifies.
Estimated Probabilities
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Continuation higher toward $3,875–$3,900 | 50% | Trend momentum favors bulls. |
| Consolidation above $3,720 | 35% | Likely pause as buyers hold off after gains. |
| Pullback to 50-day MA at $3,527 | 15% | Less probable unless profit-taking accelerates. |
Trade Opportunities
Bullish continuation trade: Possible Entries on dips toward $3,720–$3,740, targeting $3,875–$3,900, with stops below $3,690.
Breakout setup: If gold clears $3,900, momentum traders can target $3,950–$4,000 with tight trailing stops.
Gold is still in a solid uptrend as bulls dominate the yellow metal’s price action. Small pullbacks are getting bought even as the RSI has remained overbought since the 2nd of September. From here, bulls will be looking to push the price to $3,900 and then possibly the psychological mark of $4,000.
