Introduction
S&P 500 futures have rebounded after a sharp selloff, reclaiming some lost ground. Despite the recent bounce, ES remains below key resistance levels, so it looks like this small bump could be just a relief rally instead of the start of a new trend. Traders need to see that the lows at $5,500 are tested again to be more certain of a rally to commence.
Technical Analysis – Daily Chart
- Trend & Moving Averages:
- ES is trading below both the 50-day SMA (5,957.27) and 100-day SMA (5,966.94), which previously acted as support but now are resistance.
- A sustained move above these levels is needed to shift the short-term outlook to bullish.
- Price Action:
- The strong bounce from 5,500 suggests buyers are stepping in at lower levels.
- Immediate resistance is at 5,818 (S1 pivot level) and the 5,957-5,966 range where the moving averages converge.
- A failure to reclaim these levels could lead to renewed selling pressure.
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance:
- 5,818 (S1 Pivot Level) – First test for buyers in this bounce.
- 5,957 – 5,966 (50 & 100-day SMAs) – Strong resistance zone; a break above would confirm further upside.
- 6,154 (ATH level) – Long-term resistance that needs to be cleared for bullish continuation.
- Support:
- 5,674 (S2 Pivot Level) – Key short-term support if selling resumes.
- 5,500 (S3 Pivot Level) – Critical level where the recent bounce started; a break below could accelerate downside momentum.
Outlook & Trade Scenarios
- Bullish Case:
- A move above 5,818 could push ES toward 5,957-5,966 (50 & 100 SMAs).
- Clearing these moving averages would indicate a stronger recovery and could set up a retest of 6,000+ levels.
- Bearish Case:
- If ES fails to break 5,818, it may see renewed selling pressure toward 5,674 and possibly 5,500.
- A break below 5,500 would confirm continuation of the downtrend.
Outlook: The market remains in a corrective phase, with the recent bounce facing key resistance. Price action around the 5,818 – 5,966 zone will determine the next major move. Traders should watch for either a breakout above resistance or a rejection leading to further downside.
