Price Action & Structure
- Last Price: 5,891.00
- 50-day MA: 5,580.75 (support zone)
- 200-day MA: 5,789.59 (just reclaimed – now acting as dynamic support)
- Pivot (P): 5,397.50
- R1: 5,962.75
- R2: 6,338.75 (aligned with ATH breakout target)
- ATH Projection: ~6,170.00
- Chart Pattern: Breakout from falling wedge + inverse H&S hybrid
Recap of the Recent Setup
- April low (~4,839) formed a clean higher low with strong bullish divergence.
- Breakout through the wedge’s upper bound on expanding momentum was the confirmation signal.
- Since the breakout above 5,600 (April pivot range), ES has pushed sharply higher into the R1 zone, stalling just below 5,900 today.
- Pullbacks have been shallow, and each dip has been bought — a classic breakout continuation behavior.
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages
- Golden Cross-like reclaim: The 50-day and 200-day MAs were cleanly reclaimed.
- The 200-day MA is being retested from above this week, providing solid trend support.
Adaptive Momentum Oscillator (AMO)
- Current AMO: 424.90 and rising
- Signal Line: 459.48
- Momentum remains firmly bullish.
- While there’s a slight divergence forming with AMO flattening while price climbs, the oscillator remains well above zero, confirming trend continuation.
This indicator shows bullish strength, but watch for potential divergence if ES fails to break above R1 (~5,962) soon.
Key Technical Zones
| Level | Price | Role |
|---|---|---|
| R2 / ATH Target | ~6,170–6,338 | Long-term measured move / fib cluster |
| R1 | 5,962.75 | Immediate resistance |
| Support 1 | 5,789.59 | 200-day MA (new support) |
| Support 2 | 5,580.75 | 50-day MA and prior breakout |
| Pivot | 5,397.50 | Bull/bear line in the sand |
Outlook
Bullish Case
- AMO remains high and stable → confirms strength in the trend.
- Price is consolidating just beneath R1 (5,962), likely preparing for another leg higher.
- If 5,962 is cleared, bulls may target 6,170 next, which aligns with measured move from the wedge breakout and the ATH projection zone.
- Short, sharp pullbacks into the 200MA or 50MA should continue to be seen as buying opportunities unless we get strong reversal signals.
Bearish Case
- Failure to break above 5,962 followed by a break below 5,780 would signal momentum exhaustion.
- Bearish divergence in AMO would need to deepen, confirmed by price action and reversal candle patterns.
- Below 5,580, the structure weakens and risk of retest of pivot (~5,397) rises.
| Timeframe | Bias | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term | Bullish | Tight consolidation just under resistance; strong AMO |
| Medium-Term | Bullish | Trend above key MAs; RSI and momentum supportive |
| Long-Term | Cautiously Bullish | Still under ATH, but path is open if momentum holds |
Final Take
The technical case for a retest of all-time highs in the coming weeks is strengthening.
A close above 5,962 opens the door to 6,170+. Short-term traders should watch for tight bull flags or breakout confirmation, while swing traders can continue to ride the trend as long as price holds above 5,780–5,800.
