russell 2000 RTY futures OneUp Trader FUnded Trader Program
Technical Analysis

Russell 2000 (RTY) Technical Analysis: 2 July 2025

Introduction

Small caps are back in the spotlight. RTY futures have cleared both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. While large caps (e.g., NQ/ES) are leading in momentum, RTY is catching up but is still lagging the bigger indices for a while now. Lets see what the technicals are saying.


Technical Snapshot

RTY Russell 2000 technical analysis
MetricStatus / Value
Price2,218.2 (+0.22%)
50-day MA2,082.6 → upward slope
200-day MA2,186.4 → flat/slightly rising
MACDBullish crossover sustained since May
Breakout LevelCleared 200MA + horizontal base at ~2,210
ATH Reference2,477.1 (approx. +11.7% away)

Structure and Trend

  • The MACD remains firmly in bullish territory, with the signal line spread widening.
  • Price action shows a constructive pattern of higher lows and higher highs since the April bottom.
  • Short-term resistance from March (~2,225–2,240) is now being tested.

Rotation Potential

RTY tends to outperform during:

  • Early-cycle economic recoveries
  • Falling interest rate environments
  • USD weakness (which is currently ongoing — see recent DXY analysis)

With large caps extended, a broadening out into small caps would not be surprising. If confirmed, this could provide a sustained tailwind for RTY.


Scenario Probability Table

ScenarioProbabilityCommentary
Continued upside move to 2,260–2,30050%Strong MACD & MA cross support this pathway
Sideways above 2,186–2,21035%Consolidation after moving average breakout is healthy
Failure back below 2,18615%Unlikely unless broader market rolls over sharply

Trade Ideas

StrategySetup Details
Breakout longEntry: Above 2,225 with stop near 2,180; Target: 2,300+
Pullback buyBuy near 2,190–2,200; stop below 2,170
Relative valueLong RTY / Short NQ pair if large caps begin to lag

Final Outlook

Short-term: Bullish bias, breakout developing
Medium-term: Neutral-to-bullish rotation candidate
Long-term: Still below ATH, but gaining traction


Key Watchpoints:

  • Follow-through above 2,240 will be important for trend confirmation
  • Watch macro data for signs of economic breadth improving — key for small caps
  • If DXY continues to fall, RTY has further upside via inflation hedging and USD sensitivity