NQ Daily Chart
Price as of 5 August 2025: 23,366.75
50-day MA: 22,529.31
200-day MA: 21,147.31
Pivot (P): 23,264.00
Recent Lows: 22,820–22,850 (just above S1)
Resistance Zones:
- R1: 23,946
- R2: 24,527
- R3: 25,209
Technical Breakdown
Short-term Rebound Attempt
- Price bounced off the weekly S1 (22,683) and reclaimed the daily pivot level (23,264), so the bulls are attempting to regain control after the sharp 3-day pullback.
- Yesterday’s candle (4 August) was a bullish reversal, which further strengthens the bull case.
Structure & Caution Flags
- The pullback was sharp toward the end of last week, but lasted only two days, and bulls have regained momentum already.
- Bulls will need to maintain momentum moving forward and continue with another few green days; otherwise, there is a risk of stalling, and fear could start creeping in.
Probabilities Table
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Reclaim R1 (~23,946) and trend resumes | 35% | Needs strong follow-through and breadth |
| Chop in 22,700–23,700 range | 45% | Most likely near-term outcome |
| Breakdown below 22,500 (S1 + 50MA) | 20% | Would trigger further correction toward 22,000 or 21,420 |
Key Technical Levels to Watch
| Level | Type | Importance |
|---|---|---|
| 23,264 | Pivot | Reclaimed, key intraday battleground |
| 23,946 | R1 | First serious resistance, top of last impulse |
| 22,529 | 50MA / S1 | Critical support; break = deeper correction likely |
| 22,000 | S2 Support | Strong support cluster and psychological anchor |
| 21,147 | 200MA | Trend-defining floor if correction deepens |
Trade Strategy Considerations
If Bullish:
- Entry: Wait for close above 23,500 with bullish candle.
- Target: 23,946 then possibly 24,527 (R2).
- Stop: Below 22,800 (beneath S1 & 50MA).
If Bearish:
- Entry: Fade into R1 (23,946) if price stalls.
- Target: 22,700 then 22,000.
- Stop: Above 24,000.
Comparison to Other U.S. Indices
- ES (S&P 500): Still hovering near highs, showing more resilience than NQ.
- YM (Dow): Weaker, recently rejected at ATH and testing the 200MA.
Final Takeaway
Bulls are still in control overall in the US stock market. For the next few sessions, the likelihood of a consolidation is the highest with a rally above highs second, and a deeper pullback third. As we know, markets can be unpredictable, so it’s best to always stick to your plan, never gamble, and always stay logical and practical.
