Introduction
The Euro FX Futures (6E) has dipped slightly since the high on 17 September and our previous analysis, but zooming out, the price action is still in a relative consolidation phase. Prices are now trading below the 50-day moving average consistently for the first time since March of this year. With regards to fundamentals, traders are watching the ECB closely as well as the news in the US for the Dollar. For now, price remains above the 200-day moving average, and bulls will be aiming to keep that going. Let us take a closer look at the technicals and what they tell us.
Euro Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, as we have mentioned, the Euro is under pressure, trading below the 50-day moving average (1.1705) but still above the 200-day moving average (1.1343). Last week’s drop below 1.1600 confirmed a short-term bearish shift, but not major, with price now testing support at 1.1424.
If 1.1424 breaks, the next target is 1.1340–1.1300, where strong long-term support and the 200-day average meet. If buyers hold the line, a bounce toward 1.1600 or 1.1700 is possible, though both levels now act as resistance.
Overall, the euro remains in a downtrend in the short term and is consolidating in the long term.
RSI
The RSI is in negative territory but not oversold. It has been trading below 50 since October so a shift above that level would be required if bulls want to see a possible change in trend.
Euro Key Technical Levels
| Type | Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | 1.1600 | Short-term resistance. |
| Resistance 2 | 1.1705 | 50-day MA. |
| Resistance 3 | 1.1820–1.1889 | Major resistance band. |
| Support 1 | 1.1424 | Key structural support. |
| Support 2 | 1.1340 | 200-day MA. |
| Support 3 | 1.1250 | Extended support. |
Euro Probability Table (Next 2–3 Weeks)
| Scenario | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|
| Consolidation between 1.142–1.160 | 50% |
| Breakdown below 1.142 → test 1.134–1.130 | 35% |
| Rebound toward 1.170 (50-day MA) | 15% |
Fundamentals
The euro remains under pressure due to a policy gap between the ECB and the Fed. While the ECB is cautious on cuts, the eurozone economy is still seen as weaker than the U.S., limiting euro strength.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar is holding strong, supported by safe-haven demand and solid economic data, especially in jobs and manufacturing. This has kept the DXY above 99, putting further strain on the euro.
Unless U.S. yields drop or Europe’s growth outlook improves, the euro is likely to stay range-bound or drift lower.
Summary
The Euro FX Futures (6E) bulls want to see prices move above the 50 moving average, while bears are trying to push prices toward the 200 moving average.
A breakdown below 1.1424 would likely confirm further downside toward 1.1340, while a sustained rebound above 1.1600 could offer temporary relief. For now, 6E appears to be in a pause, awaiting new macro or policy developments to set the next move.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
