Introduction
Last week, we looked at Euro FX futures (6E) as selling pressure began to increase, and the bears were targeting 1.1424. Since then, prices have stabilized, and a small bounce has resulted. Let’s take a closer look at the technicals and see what we can find.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, 6E is bouncing slightly and testing the 1.1560–1.1600 zone, an important medium-term zone where prices have found support and resistance. The Euro is finding selling pressure off the 50-day moving average for now. Sellers will be targeting a move down to 1.1424, and buyers will be trying to push back above the 50-day moving average and eventually 1.182.
Weekly Chart
The weekly chart shows the Euro has been moving sideways since early July, staying between 1.1424 and 1.1889.
The MACD is still slightly negative, but the histogram is flattening, which means the downward momentum is easing. This could mean the Euro is taking a break before its next big move.
If the price stays above 1.1650 through mid-October, it could start forming a higher low, increasing the chances of a rebound toward 1.1820.
Euro FX Futures Key Levels
| Type | Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | 1.1720–1.1750 | 50-day MA & daily resistance zone |
| Resistance 2 | 1.1820 | Weekly mid-range resistance |
| Resistance 3 | 1.1889 | Major structural ceiling |
| Support 1 | 1.1560 | Daily pivot low |
| Support 2 | 1.1424 | Multi-month base & critical support |
| Long-Term Support | 1.1248 | 200-day MA |
Probability Table (Next 2–4 Weeks)
| Scenario | Neutral setup dominates while the euro stabilizes. | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Range-bound consolidation (1.16–1.18) | 50% | Neutral setup dominates while the Euro stabilizes. |
| Breakout above 1.1750 → test 1.1820 | 30% | Requires USD weakness or improved Eurozone sentiment. |
| Retest of 1.1420 base | 20% | Renewed USD strength |
Euro Fundamentals
The Euro’s short-term moves mostly depend on how the U.S. dollar performs and the policy gap between the Fed and the ECB. The ECB is being cautious due to weak growth in Europe, and with inflation easing, more rate hikes look unlikely.
On the other hand, the Fed has become slightly more cautious, too, as U.S. inflation cools and job growth slows. That’s taken some strength out of the Dollar.
If global risks stay low and U.S. bond yields stay steady, the Euro could rise toward 1.18 as traders close short positions. But if market fear returns or the Dollar strengthens again, that rally could stall fast.
Ending Off
Euro FX futures are trying to build support above 1.16, with signs that momentum is starting to steady on both daily and weekly charts. The overall trend is still sideways to slightly bearish, but the slowdown in selling pressure points toward a possible short-term bounce continuation.
For now, 1.1424 is the key level — if that breaks, the medium-term trend could be in trouble.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
