🔗 Previous Technical Analysis: Crude Oil Analysis – June 25, 2025
WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL) are holding just above a multi-month support zone, with price currently trading around $68.07, slightly below the 200-day moving average. After recent whipsaw volatility and a brief spike above $75, price has stabilized above the longstanding $66–$68 range, which continues to act as a magnet for price action.
Technical Setup
| Indicator | Level / Status |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $68.07 |
| 200-Day MA | $68.40 (Immediate resistance) |
| 50-Day MA | $64.23 (Strong dynamic support) |
| Support Zone | $66.00–$68.00 (Highlighted) |
| Resistance Zone | $72.00–$76.00 (Recent spikes) |
- CL is currently sandwiched between the 200-day MA (resistance) and 50-day MA (support).
- Price has reclaimed the $66–$68 demand zone, which acted as both resistance and support repeatedly since late 2023.
- Despite failing to hold the spike above $75 earlier in July, the fact that price didn’t break back below $66 is positive for bulls.
Price Action Recap
- In our June 25 analysis, we warned of the volatile reaction to Middle East conflict headlines, with crude ripping higher before settling back.
- Since then, the market failed to hold higher levels but didn’t fully reverse.
- July consolidation above major support could be base-building rather than exhaustion.
Key Scenarios & Probabilities
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Break above 200-day MA → test $72-$74 | 35% | Would signal renewed momentum if buyers reclaim $68.50–$69.00 |
| Chop between $66–$70 continues | 50% | Range-bound summer trading unless clear catalyst |
| Break below $66 → slide to $62–$64 | 15% | Risk-off tone or stronger dollar could trigger breakdown |
Trade Opportunities
| Type | Strategy |
|---|---|
| Swing Long | Buy near $66–$67 with stop under $64.75, target $72+ |
| Momentum Breakout | Buy above $69 with volume, targeting $72–$74 |
| Short Opportunity | Only on a clean break below $66 with increased volatility |
| Options | Sep $70/$75 call spread (risk-defined breakout play) |
Important Notes
WTI crude technical analysis shows a base building around a multi-month support level at $68, suggesting bulls may attempt another breakout toward summer resistance near $74. Crude oil July 2025 outlook remains mixed but leans bullish while holding key MAs.Rising Middle East tensions and U.S. inventory draws remain potential upside catalysts, although global demand concerns still cap speculative upside.
Outlook Summary
| Timeframe | Bias | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term | Neutral-Bullish | Sideways consolidation above support |
| Medium-Term | Bullish | Reclaimed major zone and rising 50-day MA |
| Long-Term | Neutral | Still capped by macro uncertainty and resistance |
Conclusion
Crude oil futures are entering a pivotal range. The zone between $66–$70 will likely determine whether we get a summer breakout or continued sideways churn. Technically, the structure supports cautious optimism, but traders should be mindful of headline risk and macro shifts.
If price breaks above $69–$70 with conviction, bulls could retarget the $72–$76 resistance zone seen in early July. Until then, it’s about range discipline and patience.
