Introduction
Crude oil futures have jumped 3.35% to $60.46 on Wednesday at the open, posting their biggest daily gain in over two weeks. CL is also up 8.8% since the low on the 20th of October, where the buyers stepped back in after a sharp selloff, and the price bounced from the $56–$57 support zone. This points toward oil may having found a short-term bottom as sentiment starts to improve.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil is bouncing strongly from the S2 pivot at $58.44, now testing resistance near $60.40. This move puts prices back into a key support zone that was broken earlier, raising the chance that the breakdown was temporary if bulls can keep prices above $60.
The next challenge is the 50-day moving average at $62.18 and the $62–$63.50 resistance zone. A solid breakout above this area would strengthen the short-term uptrend and could lead to a move toward the 200-day moving average at $65.83 and the R2 pivot at $68.38.
On the downside, the $58.00–$57.50 zone is key support. If that breaks, crude could drop back to $55.50 — the lower edge of the broader range it’s been stuck in since mid-September.
Overall, the short-term outlook is improving, but the bigger trend stays neutral to bearish unless prices push clearly above $63.
Key Technical Levels
| Type | Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $60.40–$60.80 | S1 pivot / immediate breakout area |
| Resistance 2 | $62.00–$63.50 | 50-day MA / former supply zone |
| Resistance 3 | $65.80 | 200-day MA / R1 pivot |
| Support 1 | $58.00–$57.50 | Recent rebound area / short-term floor |
| Support 2 | $55.50 | S3 pivot / major multi-month support zone |
Probability Table (Next 2–3 Weeks)
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Continuation to $62–$63.50 resistance | 55% | Improving structure and strong bounce from key support. |
| Range-bound between $57.50–$61.00 | 30% | Consolidation possible after steep rebound. |
| Breakdown below $57.00 toward $55.50 | 15% | Only likely if macro headwinds intensify or demand weakens. |
Fundamentals
The recent jump in oil prices comes as OPEC+ signals tighter supply and tensions in the Middle East stir up market volatility. Traders are also waiting on U.S. inventory data to see if production is keeping up with global demand.
A steadier dollar around 99 has helped ease pressure on commodities, giving oil room to bounce from oversold levels. Still, uncertainty in the broader market and weak demand from Asia are keeping bullish sentiment in check.
If tensions in the Middle East grow or inventories drop more than expected, oil could climb toward the $63–$65 range. But if risks ease or demand stays weak, selling could return.
Summary
Crude oil futures have bounced strongly off support, moving back above $60, the first clear sign of strength in weeks. Momentum is improving, but bulls still need to break through resistance around $62–$63 for the uptrend to gain traction.
In the short term, the outlook is bullish thanks to better price action and momentum. But the bigger trend stays sideways to down until oil holds above the 50-day moving average.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
