Bitcoin cryptography and blockchain
Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Futures: Key Levels to Monitor for Q1 2024

As we step into the first quarter of 2024, Bitcoin will be on the forefront of investing news as we await the bitcoin ETF. The price for BTC futures has seen a significant 162% YTD return. With the halving coming shortly, what do we expect for BTC? Here’s a technical breakdown of the current market structure and potential strategies.

Weekly Chart Analysis

The notable feature on the weekly is the rounded bottom formation, which is a parabolic curve, which the price has been respecting so far.

Resistance at All-Time High (ATH): The chart highlights a significant resistance zone around the ATH near $69,355.

Current Price Action: As of the last candle on the weekly, Bitcoin is trading at $43,740. There’s a clear uptrend in place, evidenced by consecutive higher lows along the curve.

RSI Overbought: The RSI is dangerously overbought suggesting that there may be a small pullback coming soon.

Moving Forward: If the bulls maintain their momentum, we could see the price level break through the resistance of the ATH. A weekly close above this level would confirm the breakout, potentially setting up a long position with a target at new highs.

weekly BTC futures chart showing RSI overbought and parabolic curve.

Daily Chart Breakdown

  1. 50-Day SMA: The 50-day SMA has been serving as dynamic support. The price is hovering around the $43,740 mark, sitting slightly above this moving average, which indicates continued support.
  2. 100-Day SMA: Similarly, the 100-day SMA has been acting as a support level. The price has tested and bounced off this line, reinforcing bullish control and the overall uptrend.

Trade Strategy:

  • For Long Positions: Traders might consider entering a long position if the price sustains above the 50-day SMA, with a stop loss below the 100-day SMA to manage risk. The immediate target could be set near the $45,260 region, where recent highs are observed. Targets could also be set at all-time highs and above for longer-term strategies.
  • For Short Positions: A break below the 100-day SMA could signal a shift in momentum, justifying a short position. The objective in this scenario would be the previous support level, which could be around the $32,710 mark, aligning with the 100-day SMA. There is also the ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ scenario here, where the market might sell off on news of the Bitcoin ETF officially being launched.
daily BTC futures charts showing 50 and 100 moving averages.