Market Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | 3,402.8 |
| Day’s Change | +3.8 (+0.11%) |
| 50-Day MA | 3,373.0 |
| 200-Day MA | 3,037.4 |
| Key Resistance | 3,430–3,450 (ATH zone) |
| Key Support | 3,345–3,350 (trendline & 50DMA confluence) |
Technical Overview
Trend & Structure
Gold remains in a long-term uptrend, holding above its ascending trendline from the March lows. The recent push to new all-time highs was met with selling pressure, pulling price back toward the 50MA and trendline support.
So far, the pullback is shallow, suggesting more of a stall/consolidation than a reversal.
Price is currently sandwiched between strong support (trendline/50MA) and the ATH ceiling — a classic compression setup before a potential breakout or breakdown.
Momentum & Indicators
- RSI at 52.18 is neutral, indicating that the recent selling relieved overbought conditions without turning bearish.
- If momentum picks up from here, there’s room for RSI to move toward overbought territory again without signaling exhaustion.
Key Technical Levels
| Level | Type | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 3,430–3,450 | Resistance | All-time high area, needs strong catalyst to clear |
| 3,373–3,345 | Support | Confluence of 50MA and uptrend line |
| 3,300 | Secondary Support | Prior consolidation base |
| 3,037 | 200DMA | Long-term bull/bear pivot |
| 2,600 | Major Support | Structural floor from previous cycle |
Probability Table
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout above ATH toward 3,500+ | 45% | Uptrend intact, consolidation could resolve higher if macro tailwinds (weak USD, risk hedging) persist |
| Sideways consolidation 3,345–3,430 | 35% | Likely if USD and rates stay range-bound |
| Breakdown below 3,345 toward 3,300 | 20% | Would signal weakening momentum, but larger trend still bullish above 3,037 |
Trade Setups
Bullish Breakout Play
- Entry: Close above 3,450 with volume pickup
- Target 1: 3,500
- Target 2: 3,560
- Stop: Below 3,420
Bearish Breakdown Play
- Entry: Close below 3,345
- Target 1: 3,300
- Target 2: 3,250
- Stop: Above 3,370
Final Takeaway
Gold’s pullback looks more like a pause in the uptrend than a reversal. As long as 3,345 holds, the path of least resistance remains higher — but failure here could shift the narrative toward a deeper correction.
