Introduction
In the previous analysis on 8 December 2025, ES was stabilising above key trend support after a sharp November pullback, with buyers attempting to break above the all-time high. Since then, the price has stabilized and is moving sideways. Resistance is not high, but there is some profit-taking at these levels.
ES remains firmly within its dominant uptrend, but let us take a closer look at the technicals and what they are telling us.
Technical Analysis
ES is currently trading around 6,850–6,860, holding above the 50-day moving average near 6,790, which continues to act as support. This aligns with the prior analysis, where the 50-day MA was identified as a key level buyers needed to defend to maintain upside momentum.
The highlighted 6,800–6,820 zone remains an important pivot area. Price has repeatedly tested this region from above and held, suggesting it has transitioned into support rather than resistance. As long as ES holds above this zone, the short-term structure stays constructive.
On the upside, ES is again testing the resistance near the all-time high. A sustained move above this area would signal renewed upside momentum and open the door to trend continuation. Until then, price action suggests range-bound behaviour within an upward bias.
Momentum indicators support this view. RSI has recovered back into the mid-50s, showing improving momentum but not yet signaling overbought conditions. This reflects controlled buying rather than late-stage exuberance.
Key Technical Levels
| Type | Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 6,880–6,900 | Recent highs / upper range cap |
| Resistance | 6,950+ | Upside continuation area if breakout holds |
| Support | 6,800–6,820 | Former resistance turned support |
| Support | 6,790 | 50-day moving average |
| Support | 6,250 | 200-day moving average / long-term trend |
Fundamentals
E-mini S&P 500 futures are being driven mainly by interest rate expectations. The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut has supported stocks and kept traders leaning bullish, with hopes that policy will stay friendly to risk assets. At the same time, different approaches from global central banks are affecting bonds and currencies, which can spill over into equity futures and add volatility.
Earnings trends are also shaping the market. While AI spending is still a major growth theme, leadership is starting to spread into more traditional, cyclical sectors like Industrials and Consumer Discretionary. That broader participation can help support the index, even if big tech stocks pause or pull back.
Global risks remain a wildcard. Weak data from China and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty can quickly shift markets into risk-off mode. With that backdrop, upcoming inflation and jobs data are key. Any surprise in those reports can move rate expectations and trigger sharp, short-term swings in ES futures.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
