Technical Analysis
Bullish Developments
- Strong bounce off the 200-day MA (5,809) after a 4-day pullback.
- RSI curling up just below 60 – neutral-bullish and plenty of room to run before overbought.
- The pullback appears to have formed a bullish flag or mini-bull trap reset, flushing weak hands before continuation.
- ATH target at 6,170 remains active and achievable.
Bullish Case (High Probability)
- Break above 5,962.75 (R1 pivot) clears the way for a run to retest the ATH at 6,170.
- Continuation supported by:
- Improving breadth
- Rotation into cyclicals and tech
- Fed’s rate hold giving equities breathing room
Probability: 65%
Bearish Case (Low Probability for Now)
- Failure to hold above 5,850-5,880 and drop below the 200-day MA again opens downside to:
- 5,618 (50-day MA) first
- 5,397 (May low) as key support
- RSI divergence could emerge on lower timeframes if price makes a new high without momentum.
Probability: 35%
Key Technical Levels
| Type | Level | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 5,962.75 | R1 pivot — breakout confirmation trigger |
| ATH Target | 6,170.00 | Next major resistance |
| Support | 5,809.13 | 200-day MA – reclaimed |
| Support | 5,618.52 | 50-day MA |
| Key Support | 5,397.50 | May swing low – invalidates breakout bias |
Momentum & Structure Summary
- Momentum: Rebounding from neutral, RSI near 60 and supportive of another leg higher.
- Structure: Strong bullish structure reasserted with price > 50 & 200 MAs.
- Trend: Short- and medium-term trends are bullish.
Conclusion & Positioning Outlook
The bulls have retaken control as the pullback resolves with strength off the 200-day. Unless we see another rejection at the R1 pivot, the path of least resistance is toward 6,000–6,170.
Forecast by Timeframe
| Timeframe | Bias | Target / Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term | Bullish | 5,962 breakout → 6,000 |
| Medium-term | Bullish | 6,170 ATH test |
| Long-term | Bullish | ATH extension toward 6,338 (R2) |
