Introduction
Gold futures continue their strong bullish trend, trading just below the psychological $3,000 level after a very long, resilient rally. The metal remains supported by fundamentals, including geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and central bank demand, as the geopolitical environment shakes.
Technical Analysis – Daily Chart
- Trend & Moving Averages:
- Price remains well above both the 50-day SMA (2,847.6) and the 100-day SMA (2,761.8), reinforcing a strong uptrend.
- The 50-day SMA is acting as dynamic support, maintaining bullish momentum.
- Price Action:
- Gold reached a new short-term high but faced resistance near $3,010.
- A minor pullback could find support around $2,950 – $2,960, followed by the 50-day SMA at $2,847.
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance:
- $3,010 – $3,025 → Psychological barrier and recent highs.
- $3,050+ → Blue-sky breakout level if momentum continues.
- Support:
- $2,960 – $2,950 → Previous consolidation zone.
- $2,847 (50-day SMA) → Strong dynamic support.
- $2,761 (100-day SMA) → Deeper pullback level if sentiment weakens.
Fundamental Factors Influencing Gold
- Inflation Concerns: Persistent inflation data has kept real yields low, increasing gold’s appeal.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: Continued geopolitical tensions are driving safe-haven demand.
- Central Bank Buying: Reports indicate increased gold accumulation by central banks, providing steady underlying demand.
- Fed Policy Outlook: Expectations for potential rate cuts later in 2025 could weaken the dollar, further supporting gold prices.
Trade Scenarios
- Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $3,010 could lead to a test of $3,050 – $3,100.
- Bearish Scenario: A rejection at resistance and a pullback to $2,960 – $2,950 could present a buying opportunity. A break below $2,847 (50-day SMA) would suggest a larger correction toward $2,760 – $2,800.
Outlook: The trend remains bullish, but overextended conditions suggest a possible pullback before the next leg higher. Traders should watch for price action near $3,010 and $2,960 for potential entry points.
