Can Gold Futures (GC) Bullish Run Keep Going?

• Current Price: $3,311
• Recent ATH: $3,509 (April)
• YTD Performance: 🟢 +~42% (one of the best-performing major assets)

Context: 2025’s Market Chaos Is Gold’s Fuel

Gold’s explosive rally has been fueled by macro turmoil:

• Recession fears (triggered by Trump’s aggressive trade tariffs and global retaliation)
• Dollar weakness (see DXY chart analysis)
• Risk-off flows from equities (ES, NQ in correction territory)
• Safe-haven and inflation hedge bid

Gold has outperformed equities, bonds, the dollar, and even oil. That alone demands attention.

Technical Analysis – Daily Chart Breakdown

Trend Structure: Bullish and Intact

• Price broke above a well-defined ascending channel, with repeated clean bounces off both boundaries
• Still riding comfortably above both:
  • 50-day MA
  • 100-day MA
• Every dip since Q1 has been bought aggressively — classic bull market behavior

Flag Formation or Consolidation at Highs?

• Price is consolidating just below the recent ATH at $3,509
• A short-term bull flag/pennant is forming — not yet a breakout, but bullish continuation potential
• No lower high yet — pullbacks are shallow

RSI and Momentum Indicators

• RSI at 63.80 → strong but not overbought (plenty of room to run)
• No bearish divergence present
• Volume is elevated on green days, which supports bullish conviction

🟢 Bullish Case

• Macro tailwinds persist (recession fears, weak USD, equity volatility)
• Technicals support continuation: trend is clean, RSI healthy, no topping pattern

Potential Target Ladder:

• $3,400
• $3,548
• $3,741

🔴 Bearish Case

• A sharp reversal in USD or yields could cause unwinding of gold longs
• If 3,059 (50 MA) breaks on volume → we could see a quick flush to 2,800.
• Equities stabilizing and real yields rising would erode gold’s appeal

Summary Table

Final Take – Can Gold Keep Outperforming?

Gold is one of the few assets with clear technical and fundamental alignment. Unless we see a reversal in real yields, or a macro pivot toward risk appetite, gold could continue leading global markets.