Introduction
In the previous analysis published on 1 December 2025, Euro FX futures were consolidating within a broad range, holding above the 1.1420 support zone while struggling to sustain upside momentum through the 1.1820–1.1890 resistance area. Since then, bulls have found a new strength and pushed above the 50 MA and into the 1.182 resistance zone.
Let’s take a closer look at the technicals and what they are telling us.
Technical Analysis
Euro FX futures remain in a range-bound structure, but the short-term technical picture has strengthened. Price has reclaimed the 50-day moving average, which is now acting as near-term dynamic support around 1.1635. This shift suggests improving momentum compared to the choppier conditions seen earlier in December.
Above the candles show a lot of indecision in the price action at the current resistance zone. Bulls will need to find a lot of strength to break above this as the selling ramps up.
On the downside, 1.1424 remains critical support. This level has held through multiple pullbacks and is reinforced by the rising 200-day moving average, which continues to trend higher and underpins the bullish structure. As long as price holds above this zone, deeper downside pressure remains limited.
Key Technical Levels
| Type | Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | 1.1820 | Major swing high/upper range cap |
| Resistance 2 | 1.1889 | Major swing high / upper range cap |
| Support 1 | 1.1630–1.1650 | 50-day MA / short-term support |
| Support 2 | 1.1424 | Range low / key structural support |
| Support 3 | 1.0795 | 2024 swing low / long-term support |
Fundamental Outlook
From a fundamental perspective, Euro FX remains largely driven by central bank expectations and U.S. dollar dynamics. Markets continue to weigh the timing and pace of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, while the ECB maintains a cautious stance as eurozone growth remains uneven. Near term, volatility could increase around key releases such as U.S. inflation data, employment reports, and ECB policy communications, all of which may influence rate differentials and drive direction the Euro and the Dollar. Until clearer policy divergence emerges, fundamentals continue to support a range-bound environment with headline-driven moves.
Probability Table (Next 2–4 Weeks)
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Break above 1.1820–1.1890 | 40% | Improving momentum and MA support favor upside tests |
| Continued range-bound trade | 45% | Resistance remains firm, consolidation still likely |
| Breakdown below 1.1420 | 15% | Would require renewed USD strength or macro shock |
Summary
Euro FX futures continue to trade within a well-defined range, but the short-term outlook has improved as price holds above the 50-day moving average and presses into upper resistance. A clear break above 1.1820–1.1890 would shift the structure more decisively bullish, while failure at this zone keeps the broader consolidation intact. As long as 1.1420 support holds, the medium-term trend remains constructive despite ongoing range conditions.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does **not** constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions
