Introduction
ES has now pushed through the prior all-time high around the 7,100 area and, at least for the moment, is holding above it. A new ATH in an extremely dangerous environment with regard to the war in the Middle East. Donald Trump is even calling for war with Cuba, and the equity markets are making new highs.
The markets are difficult to analyze now because of this disconnect, but let’s take a look at the technicals and see what we can learn from them.
Price Behavior
The move from the lows on the 31st of March to break above the ATH was swift, with only one small red day out of 15. There is a small pause happening now at the resistance level as some profit-taking is happening. The 50 moving average also barely avoided a death cross under the 200 MA. The focus is still on the developments in the world as anything could send the market in either direction, US equities however seem to be stable even during extreme chaotic periods.
Key Levels That Matter
The 7,080–7,130 zone, which marks the previous all-time high, is now the most important area on the chart. What used to be resistance has turned into support, and the market is currently sitting right on top of it.
As long as ES remains above that zone, the breakout is intact. If it starts trading back below and fails to reclaim it, the tone changes quickly, and what looked like strength can turn into a failed move.
Below that, the next meaningful areas don’t come in until much lower, around 6,800 and then 6,600, which were key levels during the earlier recovery.
Probabilities
| Scenario | Description | Estimated Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Continuation | Holds above 7,100 and continues higher | 50% |
| Consolidation | Builds a range just above the breakout before moving | 30% |
| Failed Breakout | Falls back below 7,100 and rotates lower | 20% |
Possible Trades
The cleaner setup is on pullbacks into the 7,080–7,130 area, especially if that zone holds and price shows buyers stepping in again.
Chasing strength up here is still possible, but it becomes less attractive the further price stretches without pausing. Markets tend to reward patience more than urgency in these spots.
Shorts, on the other hand, only start to make sense if the breakout clearly fails. That would mean a move back below the prior highs and an inability to reclaim them. Without that, fading strength is fighting the current structure.
