Introduction
6E failed to hold its recent peak and attempted breakout above 1.18895 on 16 September and has rolled back beneath the 50-day moving average. The drop leaves price vulnerable to a move down to 1.1424, but higher-timeframe support is still intact. The small cluster at 1.165 is something the bulls will try to defend.
Technical Analysis
The downtrend that started from the 1.1889 high over the summer is still acting as resistance. The market keeps getting rejected near 1.182–1.189, which means the range is still in place.
The 50-day moving average, now around 1.17127, has turned into resistance, while the 200-day moving average near 1.1212 is still rising, showing the longer-term outlook is neutral to slightly positive.
The RSI at about 40 has dropped below 50, showing that upward momentum is fading, though the market isn’t yet oversold.
Resistance sits around 1.1710–1.1720 (the 50-day average and a prior support), then at 1.1820 and 1.1889. Support lies between 1.1560–1.1565, then 1.1480–1.1500, and finally 1.1424, which is the key level that must hold for the bulls.
A daily close above 1.1720 would cancel the recent breakdown and reopen the price to 1.182–1.189. A close below 1.1560 could send prices toward 1.1480 or even 1.1424.
Key levels
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | What it looks like |
|---|---|---|
| Sideways 1.156–1.172 | 40% | Range-bound price await fresh catalyst. |
| Reclaim 1.172 then push to 1.182 | 35% | Range-bound price awaits a fresh catalyst. |
| Break below 1.156 toward 1.148 | 25% | USD gains strength and Euro weakens. |
Fundamentals
The U.S. dollar has strengthened as U.S. yields stay high and expectations for a soft landing continue, putting pressure on the euro. The ECB is signaling rates will stay high for longer, but weak Eurozone growth limits any upside for the euro unless upcoming data surprise positively.
Looking ahead, major catalysts include U.S. CPI, PPI, NFP, and ISM data, along with Eurozone PMIs, CPI, and ECB comments. Diverging results between U.S. and Euro-area data could quickly push the euro either back above 1.172 or down through 1.156.
Ending Off
Bottom line: 6E is back in mid-range with short-term momentum negative and 1.171–1.172 acting as the pivot. Bulls need a reclaim of the 50-MA to revisit 1.182/1.189; bears will likely push for 1.156 to give way to 1.148.
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contracts. Futures trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making trading decisions.
