Technical Analysis
Breakout Confirmation
NQ has exploded higher, breaking the downtrend and gaining a lot of bullish interest once more.
Price has moved back into the previous bullish trend channel, which at one time was extremely unlikely.
RSI Momentum
- RSI now sits at 66.56, confirming strong upside momentum but approaching overbought territory.
- RSI has decisively cleared both its own midline and moving average — bullish continuation signal.
Volume Profile
- A big volume node around 19,600–20,300, now behind the current price.
- Now only the Point of control at 21,500 is above which will be a test for the bulls.
Key Levels
| Zone Type | Price Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 21,900 – 22,500 | Prior all-time high supply zone (marked in pink) |
| Minor Resistance | 21,000 – 21,200 | Psychological and fib-based resistance |
| Support | 20,300 – 20,000 | MA cluster and breakout retest zone |
| Support | 19,300 – 19,500 | High volume zone and previous ceiling |
Narrative Context
This move reflects a decisive risk-on shift, likely driven by:
- Receding recession fears,
- Dovish Fed expectations despite sticky inflation,
- Continued AI and mega-cap tech leadership, with NVDA, MSFT, and GOOGL pushing higher,
- Weakness in the U.S. dollar, which also supports U.S. tech stocks.
Earnings resilience and strong forward guidance from major tech names seem to be outweighing macro concerns — for now.
Bull Case
- Strong RSI and price structure breakout.
- Break above high-volume resistance zone.
- 200-day MA successfully reclaimed.
- Channel support holds; room toward ATH zone at 22,500.
Bear Case
- Overbought RSI could prompt short-term consolidation.
- Price approaching a key psychological resistance zone at 21,000–21,200.
- Macro headwinds (inflation, rates) still unresolved.
Final Outlook
| Time Frame | Bias | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term | Bullish | Strong momentum breakout and RSI confirmation |
| Medium | Bullish | Above major MAs and resistance levels, trend resuming |
| Long-term | Bullish | Higher highs in channel, tech rotation remains intact |
