- A quick summary of what 2022 has shown us and what we can take into 2023.
- A look into the importance of trader psychology.
- Technical analysis on various markets and a final note from Jay.
What 2022 Has Shown Us
2022 has not been a year for the long-term investor. Traders with solid strategies and discipline have either used this sell-off to hedge their portfolios or short the market as it has continued to make lower lows. The overall trend has been down, yet we still see traders taking long positions. Looking at the majority of funded traders this year, most have had higher winning rates on short trades than long ones. Vested with this knowledge, it’s something we can take into 2023. We must think in probabilities, and to put the odds in our favor, we should trade in line with the long-term trend, not against it.
Alternative Ways To Approach The Evaluation Opportunity
As traders, we are blessed to be given the opportunity to trade with OneUp Trader and not have to risk our own capital. It allows us to test strategies and build our psychological strength, which is just not possible to do on demo accounts. With that in mind, we have seen vastly different systems and approaches that can be taken; one, in particular, is how some funded traders have treated the Evaluation.
Some traders like Jipson and Daniel have withdrawn over $20,000 as a pair, and they have one thing in common. They understand that they are not always going to perform in the markets; they accept it and thus focus their efforts on extracting as much profit as possible when it’s going well for them. Both traders have lost their funded trading accounts multiple times, yet they have still been able to make sizeable withdrawals. They don’t try to go for perfection in their trading; they just make money. It’s that simple!
Trading psychology is a very overlooked subject, and it really shouldn’t be that way. In fact, it’s the reason why 90% of traders end up losing money. Too many traders do not know what they want the markets to provide them. They are ruled by their emotions and make rash decisions which force them to adopt a gambler’s mindset instead of a probabilistic one.
Do you ever ask yourself what you actually want from the markets? Do you ever question why you are trading and what it’s really going to take to succeed? If you feel like your discipline and general mental attitude in trading could have been better this year, make it a goal to improve in 2023.
Technical Review & Outlook
Crude Oil (CL)
For the majority of the year, we have seen CL fall along with other markets as the Dollar has gained strength. We closely monitored the parabolic channels and the 1-2-3 reversal pattern and will continue to do so as we move into the new year. The 1-2-3 reversal targets remain at sub $68; we could, however, say the move already occurred when CL fell to $70. From here, the parabolic curve will need to act as resistance for the bears to remain in control. It’s currently at $80.
NQ is now only 5% away from the yearly lows. The selling pressure has increased, with yesterday’s session closing 2.7% lower. Take a look at the analysis from yesterday to get a more in-depth look.
We have witnessed a fall in Gold of 22% from the high made in April of this year to the low made in early November. At the moment, the rising wedge referenced here has been broken. The bearish divergence is also playing out just like we anticipated, with Gold going through a small consolidation phase to finish off the year.
We anticipate a bumpy road ahead as the indices finish the year near the lows. The Fed’s monetary policy regarding interest rates is not helping much. Since they shall continue to raise rates next year until their target of 2% inflation is met, we can be cautious about any long strategies into the start of the new year.
Final Note From Jay
I hope you have found value in the technical articles this year. I intend to continue writing them for you next year and welcome any recommendations from you regarding layout and different markets you would like to be covered. Take this time to rest and reflect on what you could have done better in 2022. Remember, having a goal for 2023 is going to be important, so if you don’t have one, create one. Don’t let trading stress you out; find a balance and leverage the OneUp Trader Evaluation to the best of your ability, just like Jipson and Daniel did.
Merry Christmas from the OneUp Trader Team.