Introduction
Gold futures (COMEX: GC) are holding firm near $3,371.80, up +$12.70 (+0.38%) today, as price action tightens just beneath the all-time high (ATH) zone and continues to respect the rising trendline support. There is a large ascending triangle forming, and if the bulls can maintain momentum, then a break above the all-time high is more likely than not.
Meanwhile, geopolitical developments continue to support Gold and the demand for it.
Chart Structure
- Price is consolidating in a clear ascending triangle, pressing against resistance just under the $3,510 ATH.
- The 50-day MA ($3,334.70) has acted as dynamic support and is now rising into the trendline—a bullish confluence.
Support and Resistance
| Type | Level |
|---|---|
| Immediate Resistance | ~$3,510 (ATH zone) |
| Support 1 | $3,345 (trendline + 50-day MA) |
| Support 2 | $3,300 (psychological + minor structure) |
| Major Support | $2,963 (200-day MA) |
Macro & News Drivers
Key news impacting gold today includes:
- Escalating tensions in the Red Sea, with reports of renewed Houthi missile activity targeting shipping lanes. Safe-haven demand is quietly building, though not aggressively priced in.
- US Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure near multi-month lows, enhancing the tailwind for gold priced in USD. Dollar weakness continues to be one of the strongest underlying bull drivers.
- Real yields remain subdued and gold ETF inflows have turned slightly positive for July—an encouraging signal for spot demand.
Probabilities Table
| Scenario | Estimated Probability | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout above $3,510 ATH | 50% | Strong continuation, targets $3,600+ |
| Extended consolidation under ATH | 35% | Healthy coil, trend remains intact |
| Break of trendline and close below $3,300 | 15% | Breakdown risk increases |
Trade Possibilities
| Trade Idea | Setup Details |
|---|---|
| Bullish breakout buy | Entry on break above $3,510, targets $3,600–$3,700 |
| Pullback long | Entry near $3,330–$3,345, stop under $3,300 |
Timeframe Summary
| Timeframe | Bias | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term | Bullish | Tight range, breakout possible |
| Medium-Term | Bullish | Trendline intact, supported by macro drivers |
| Long-Term | Bullish | Macro and inflation hedge demand intact |
Previous Analysis Links
Gold Technical Analysis – July 8, 2025
This follow-up builds on our earlier view, where we noted the bullish trendline defense and potential for rotation higher. Today’s action reinforces that scenario.
Ending Off
Gold remains technically strong and macro-supported. The market is in a tight decision zone, coiling under resistance with higher lows. A breakout through $3,510 could unleash a new leg higher, especially if dollar weakness persists and geopolitical jitters intensify.
