Introduction
- Last Price: 1.12465
- 50-day MA: 1.11417
- 200-day MA: 1.08284
- Pivot Point (P): 1.12725
- Key Resistance (R1): 1.17205
- Key Support (S1): 1.09320
Technical Analysis
After a strong breakout above 1.13 in April, 6E has pulled back modestly, retracing toward the 50-day moving average and prior support at ~1.114–1.117. Buyers stepped in at that level, and we are now seeing an attempt to regain upside momentum.
Price is currently retesting the pivot zone at 1.127, which is also the neckline of a former breakout. A successful recapture of this level would shift control back to the bulls.
Chart Structure & Levels
| Type | Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 1.12725 | Pivot & neckline retest zone |
| Resistance | 1.16130 | April high and major target |
| Support | 1.11400 | 50-day MA & minor trend support |
| Support | 1.09320 | Monthly S1 & structural low |
| Support | 1.08284 | 200-day MA – critical trend floor |
Momentum & AMO
Adaptive Momentum Oscillator (AMO):
- Current: -0.02317
- Signal Line: -0.02757
- Trend: Weak negative, but stabilizing
The AMO is in negative territory, confirming momentum has shifted lower over the past two weeks. However, the histogram is flattening, and if price continues to firm above 1.125, we could see a momentum crossover to the upside — a potentially early bullish signal.
This is a watch zone: bulls are defending, but have not yet reclaimed control.
Macro Context
- ECB-Fed divergence has fueled recent Euro strength — the ECB is seen as closer to the end of rate hikes than the Fed, yet US dollar weakness has dominated due to:
- Soft US CPI data
- Growing recession expectations
- Rate cut speculation returning
- However, any hawkish surprise from the Fed or Eurozone growth disappointments could reverse this dollar-negative trend. Macro event risk remains elevated.
Outlook
Bull Case:
- Break and hold above 1.12725 flips bias back to upside
- Targets: 1.1613 (R1), followed by 1.1720
- AMO crossover and higher low confirmation would validate renewed upside
Bear Case:
- Failure to break pivot + AMO momentum rolls over further
- Breakdown below 1.114 opens risk toward 1.093 and 200 MA near 1.082
Timeframe Bias
| Timeframe | Bias | Confidence | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short | Neutral | Low | Still consolidating below pivot |
| Medium | Bullish | Medium | Above MAs, structure intact |
| Long | Bullish | Medium-High | Uptrend intact above 1.08 |
Final Thoughts
Euro Futures (6E) is at an important level regarding the technicals, hovering just beneath the 1.12725 pivot after defending its 50-day MA. While short-term momentum is still tentative, the broader trend remains constructive.
A bullish AMO crossover would provide a momentum confirmation. Until then, this is a watch and react environment. A close above 1.12725 is the signal bulls want to see.
