Price Action Overview
- Last Price: 42,530
- 50-day MA: 41,154
- 200-day MA: 42,473 (currently acting as resistance)
- Pivot Point (P): 40,105
- Key Resistance (R1): 43,501
- All-Time High (ATH): 45,176
Market Context
Since bottoming near 38,000 in April, YM has staged a persistent, low-volatility rally forming a clean ascending triangle pattern, typically a continuation formation when appearing after an uptrend — which is what the longer-term trend supports.
Today’s price action shows tight coiling just below resistance and above trendline support, so we could see a breakout attempt toward R1 and ultimately ATH.
Technical Structure
Pattern: Ascending Triangle
- Flat horizontal resistance at ~42,530–43,500 zone
- Rising support line from April lows
- Compression leaning toward expansion in volatility
Breakout target based on pattern height (approx. 2,000 pts) from breakout zone projects move toward 44,500–45,000, aligning with the ATH zone.
Key Levels
| Level Type | Price | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 43,564 | Key barrier before ATH |
| ATH | 45,176 | Major target |
| Support 1 | 42,333 | 200-day MA (now being tested) |
| Support 2 | 41,154 | 50-day MA / triangle base |
| Support 3 | 40,105 | Pivot line and breakout invalidation |
| S1 (Pivot) | 37,373 | Deep corrective risk level |
Outlook
Bullish Scenario
- A break and close above 43,500 activates the triangle breakout pattern with upside to 44,500–45,176 (ATH).
- Momentum, moving averages, and structure all support this outcome.
- Strengthening breadth across indices like ES and NQ further supports a risk-on environment.
Bearish Scenario
- Failure to break 43,500 followed by a break below the rising trendline (~42,000) and 200MA (~42,333) could spark a pullback toward 41,150–40,100 support cluster.
- Momentum divergence (if confirmed) would accelerate the risk of this breakdown.
| Timeframe | Bias | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term | Bullish | Compression breakout likely near |
| Medium-Term | Bullish | Targeting ATH if breakout holds |
| Long-Term | Bullish | Reacceleration after correction phase |
Summary
Dow futures (YM) are setting up in a textbook ascending triangle pattern, flirting with resistance under the 43,500 mark. With momentum constructive, and trend structure bullish, the probability favors a breakout in the coming sessions targeting 45,000–45,200.
As long as YM holds 42,300–42,000, the base case remains higher. If bulls fail to follow through, 41,150 is the key downside trigger.
