US interest futures fell slightly on Thursday as traders backed off bets that the Federal Reserve would cut rates more aggressively later in 2026, after economic data revealed significant improvement. The CME Group’s 30-Day Federal Funds futures prices indicate the decreased probability of more than one cut since last week. Contracts ending in September and Read More…
US interest futures are currently at the center of the macro debate as markets and the Fed diverge on the timing and speed of policy easing. Pricing in 3-month SOFR futures on CME indicates that traders still expect a lower policy rate path over 2026 than today. However, the depth and pace of cuts implied Read More…
US interest futures are pointing to a “later and milder” easing cycle because markets now expect the Fed to be patient rather than make a quick change. The front of the Fed funds strip (F26 and G26 contracts running from January to March 2026) trades close to the current rates. So, the policy will likely Read More…
US interest futures got a lot of attention since an unusual trade occurred in the Fed Funds futures market just days before a key US jobs report. On Tuesday, the largest trade in this market to date occurred: a single block trade of 200,000 January Fed Funds futures contracts. The size alone has led to Read More…
US interest futures have remained volatile as the markets digest recent inflation and employment statistics, re-evaluating their expectations of the Fed’s policy path in 2026. A surprisingly cool CPI data and mixed NFP figures drove markets to price in two more rate cuts in 2026. Treasury yields highlight these dynamics. The 2-year yield, which reflects Read More…
US interest futures edged higher on Thursday as Treasury yields retreated for a second consecutive session, with traders betting on a softer policy trajectory following the Fed’s 25-bps rate cut. However, the investors focused on the split in the committee and the Fed Chair’s tone, which signaled more easing in 2026, despite the emphasis on Read More…
