US interest futures got a lot of attention since an unusual trade occurred in the Fed Funds futures market just days before a key US jobs report. On Tuesday, the largest trade in this market to date occurred: a single block trade of 200,000 January Fed Funds futures contracts. The size alone has led to Read More…
US interest futures have remained volatile as the markets digest recent inflation and employment statistics, re-evaluating their expectations of the Fed’s policy path in 2026. A surprisingly cool CPI data and mixed NFP figures drove markets to price in two more rate cuts in 2026. Treasury yields highlight these dynamics. The 2-year yield, which reflects Read More…
US interest futures edged higher on Thursday as Treasury yields retreated for a second consecutive session, with traders betting on a softer policy trajectory following the Fed’s 25-bps rate cut. However, the investors focused on the split in the committee and the Fed Chair’s tone, which signaled more easing in 2026, despite the emphasis on Read More…
US interest futures swung swiftly on Thursday after fresh US data showed stronger job growth in September, prompting traders to reduce bets on December rate cuts. A few weeks ago, markets were certain about the rate cut. According to FactSet, the probability of a rate cut is down to 22% from 97% in mid-October. The Read More…
US interest futures experienced a decisive reset on Friday as market participants reassessed the Fed’s policy trajectory after the US government shutdown ended. The reduced uncertainty and potential visibility of key data have triggered a divergence between short-dated and long-dated contracts. Short-dated interest futures, such as 2-year Treasury futures and Fed funds, jumped after the Read More…
US interest futures remain choppy as deteriorated risk sentiment meets mixed policy signals and upcoming data risks. The divergence between front end of the curve and longer dated contracts is quite evident now. The short-term contracts like 30-day Fed funds futures that price in policy expectations are fluctuating as traders trim the hopes of aggressive Read More…
