US interest futures remain choppy as deteriorated risk sentiment meets mixed policy signals and upcoming data risks. The divergence between front end of the curve and longer dated contracts is quite evident now. The short-term contracts like 30-day Fed funds futures that price in policy expectations are fluctuating as traders trim the hopes of aggressive Read More…
This week, US interest futures experienced volatility as traders reacted to Cautious Fed guidance and rising long-term yields. The Fed reduced its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 3.75 – 4.00%, which was largely priced in by the markets. However, Fed Chair Powell warned that further cuts are not guaranteed. This eased the expectations of Read More…
The US interest futures traded cautiously this week as markets anticipated two key developments. This included the delayed Consumer Price Index data expected on 24 October because the US government shutdown lowered market visibility. The second is the FOMC meeting, scheduled to be released on 28-29 October. In the last week, the major ZN1 and Read More…
The US interest futures resumed their upward trend this week, with investors increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve would at least cut rates once before the end of the year. The October meeting is now fully priced with a 25-bps shift. The change reflects an increasing belief that the US policy rate will not go Read More…
This week, US interest futures are maintaining a delicate balance as markets consider macro risks, inflation signals, and central bank rhetoric. The front end of the curve remains sensitive as investors are pricing in a 25 bps Fed rate cut in October, which reflects easing momentum but not a full dovish commitment. The Fed’s September Read More…
US interest futures came under selling pressure this week as upbeat US data prompted traders to scale back aggressive bets for rate cuts. The Fed’s meeting in September delivered a 25-bps rate cut, but Fed Chair Powell stressed that the policy will remain data-dependent with no pre-commitment to a cutting cycle. The Fed’s nuance, combined Read More…
