US interest futures didn’t change much on Friday as traders were cautious ahead of the February non-farm payrolls report and also factored in the inflation risks posed by the growing conflict between the US and Iran. Short-term rate contracts linked to the Federal Reserve System’s policy outlook indicate that traders are losing faith in near-term Read More…
Open interest in US interest futures hit an all-time high in February as investors shifted their positions amid concerns about monetary policy, tariffs, and the economy. The CME Group, which runs the world’s largest derivatives market, said that open interest (OI) in its US Treasury futures and options reached an all-time high of 36,328,151 contracts Read More…
US interest futures show the market has absorbed the Federal Reserve’s hawkish messages but remains highly sensitive to new data. The January FOMC minutes supported the idea that rates would stay high for a long time. Policymakers voted to keep rates at 3.5%-3.75% and openly warned against easing too soon. Some members want to ease Read More…
US interest futures fell slightly on Thursday as traders backed off bets that the Federal Reserve would cut rates more aggressively later in 2026, after economic data revealed significant improvement. The CME Group’s 30-Day Federal Funds futures prices indicate the decreased probability of more than one cut since last week. Contracts ending in September and Read More…
US interest futures are currently at the center of the macro debate as markets and the Fed diverge on the timing and speed of policy easing. Pricing in 3-month SOFR futures on CME indicates that traders still expect a lower policy rate path over 2026 than today. However, the depth and pace of cuts implied Read More…
US interest futures are pointing to a “later and milder” easing cycle because markets now expect the Fed to be patient rather than make a quick change. The front of the Fed funds strip (F26 and G26 contracts running from January to March 2026) trades close to the current rates. So, the policy will likely Read More…
