Fundamental Analysis Market Overview

Economic Outlook 2024: What to Expect for Global Growth and Inflation

Global Economic Growth

  • The OECD projects a modest global GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024, with slight improvements to 3.2% in 2025. This growth rate remains subdued compared to the pre-global financial crisis era. Notably, labor markets are easing with unemployment rates at or near record lows​ (OECD)​.
  • The World Bank forecasts global growth to slow to 2.4% in 2024, reflecting challenges such as geopolitical tensions, inflation, and high interest rates​ (Brookings)​.
GDP growth projections 2024 2025

Inflation and Monetary Policy

  • Inflation remains a concern, with central banks maintaining higher interest rates for longer periods. This is contributing to a cautious outlook for equity markets, particularly in the US and other developed economies​ (J.P. Morgan | Official Website)​​ (Fidelity Investments)​.
  • The US Federal Reserve signaled that it might start easing monetary policy in 2024, but market expectations for significant rate cuts could be premature if inflation remains stubborn​ (Fidelity Investments)​.
US monthly inflation rate 2023 vs 2024

Geopolitical Risks

  • Geopolitical tensions, especially in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, pose significant risks. These conflicts impact global supply chains and could lead to higher commodity prices, potentially stoking inflation and hindering economic growth​ (Brookings)​.
  • China’s economic slowdown is another major risk. A further deceleration in China’s growth could adversely affect global trade, particularly for countries heavily reliant on exporting goods to China​ (Brookings)​.

Regional Economic Outlooks

  • Central Europe is expected to grow faster than Western Europe, with Poland and Romania driving much of this growth. This region benefits from lower labor costs and improving infrastructure, making it attractive for nearshoring investments​ (Deloitte United States)​.
  • South Africa faces economic challenges due to power supply issues and logistic constraints, with growth expected to remain modest in the near term. Structural reforms and infrastructure investments are crucial for stimulating future growth​ (Deloitte United States)​.
GDP Growth central europe vs western europe