Interest futures have seen a sharp and unusual price change this week. Traders have shifted from pricing rate cuts to hedging against the probability of policy tightening as an energy-driven inflation shock spreads through global markets. Short-term contracts linked to near-term SOFR futures, especially expiring in June and September 2026, have seen implied yields rise Read More…
US interest futures are pricing in a long period of tight policy after the Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark rate steady this week. A recent rise in global oil prices and ongoing inflation have made it harder for the Fed to ease up in 2026. The FOMC ended its two-day meeting on Wednesday Read More…
US interest futures are showing a cautious view of Federal Reserve policy as geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices change investors’ expectations from both short- and long-term contracts. 30-Day Federal Funds futures (ZQ) track expectations for the Fed’s policy rate. Traders have lowered their hopes for quick rate cuts as energy prices have gone up. Read More…
US interest futures didn’t change much on Friday as traders were cautious ahead of the February non-farm payrolls report and also factored in the inflation risks posed by the growing conflict between the US and Iran. Short-term rate contracts linked to the Federal Reserve System’s policy outlook indicate that traders are losing faith in near-term Read More…
Open interest in US interest futures hit an all-time high in February as investors shifted their positions amid concerns about monetary policy, tariffs, and the economy. The CME Group, which runs the world’s largest derivatives market, said that open interest (OI) in its US Treasury futures and options reached an all-time high of 36,328,151 contracts Read More…
US interest futures show the market has absorbed the Federal Reserve’s hawkish messages but remains highly sensitive to new data. The January FOMC minutes supported the idea that rates would stay high for a long time. Policymakers voted to keep rates at 3.5%-3.75% and openly warned against easing too soon. Some members want to ease Read More…
