Crude oil futures fell to the $63.50 region after two days of gains, as talks between Iran and the US in Oman eased fears of a broader disruption in the Middle East. The move, as reported, shows the market’s sensitivity. The risk premium can disappear quickly when diplomacy signals are strong and then return just Read More…
Gold’s latest leg higher is best understood through futures-led risk repricing. As tensions between the US and Iran grew, investors quickly moved into safe havens, pushing gold futures up 3.49% to $5,107 and spot prices through the $5,000 psychological barrier to $5,089. Silver rose 5.77% to $88.00, which supported the “panic hedge” trade. This aligns Read More…
US equities started February with strong momentum, but this time, under a more complicated environment. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all had reasonable gains at the start of the month. Futures also pointed to a positive bias, suggesting that investors are willing to take on more risk even as they remain worried about the Read More…
Currency futures markets are recalibrating amid political and macroeconomic events in the US that are affecting investors’ sentiment toward the US dollar. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has changed expectations toward a less flexible policy path. This has supported the US dollar across futures markets. The bias in euro FX Read More…
US interest futures are currently at the center of the macro debate as markets and the Fed diverge on the timing and speed of policy easing. Pricing in 3-month SOFR futures on CME indicates that traders still expect a lower policy rate path over 2026 than today. However, the depth and pace of cuts implied Read More…
Crude oil futures are locked in a geopolitically driven rally, with Brent pushing toward the high $60s and WTI into the mid-$60s, marking three consecutive days of gains and roughly a 5% advance since January 26. The primary driver is escalating Middle East tension centered on Iran, a key OPEC producer pumping around 3.2 million barrels Read More…
Gold futures are trading in an environment with record spot prices, strong flows into safe havens, and a structurally weaker US dollar. Spot gold has gone above $5,200 per ounce for the first time, up more than 20% since the beginning of the year. US gold futures for near-term delivery also reflect this rise. Traditional Read More…
US equities are slowly rising despite a lot of noise in the economy and politics. Tech stocks are helping to keep risk sentiment high, even as policy and tariff risks grow. On Monday, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rose by about 0.4% to 0.6%. This kept the cautiously optimistic mood going into a week Read More…
Currency futures are opening the week with the USD complex still fragile, even though pockets of safe-haven demand show up on tariff/geopolitical headlines. The US Dollar Index futures (DXY) are around 97.0–97.1, close to their lowest level in months. Investors are weighing the noise around trade policy, the “Sell America” flows, and the risk that Read More…
The US interest futures market is hesitant, moving in both directions. The front end isn’t fully discounting the easing story, but it’s also struggling to price in aggressive near-term cuts. Fed Funds futures (ZQ) and SOFR futures (SR3) still show a split. Markets are fine with a “hold next meeting” base case, but they also Read More…
